Listen Now
Loading audio... Please wait for the audio to load before using controls.
0:0027:55
100%
Chapter Overview
Chapter 1: AudiobookHub Recommendation
Chapter 2: Economists are poor at forecasting the economy and judging how certain their forecasts are.
Chapter 3: Forecasting the economy is hard because it’s a complex and ever-changing system.
Chapter 4: Statistics-only forecasting isn’t enough – we still need human judgment.
Chapter 5: Many experts didn’t foresee the 2008 collapse of the US housing bubble.
Chapter 6: Excessive optimism in the US government and banks helped fuel the crisis.
Chapter 7: Bayes’ theorem lets you update your beliefs logically when new evidence appears.
Chapter 8: Careful, thorough and varied predictions beat bold, simplistic ones.
Chapter 9: Stock markets are tough to outsmart because they’re usually efficient.
Chapter 10: Market bubbles can be spotted using stock prices and the P/E ratio.
Chapter 11: Straightforward climate models often outperform highly complex ones.
Chapter 12: Predicting and stopping major terrorist attacks is hard but achievable.
Description
The Signal and the Noise explains why so many expert predictions today fail spectacularly, and what statistical and probability tools are more up to the task of predicting real-world phenomena.
Who Should Listen
- Anyone whose job involves making predictions or forecasts
- Anyone who wants to know why the economy is so difficult to predict