Super Crunchers audiobook cover - Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to be Smart

Super Crunchers

Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to be Smart

Ian Ayres

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Categories:
EconomicsManagement & Leadership

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Quiz — Test Your Understanding

Question 1 of 6
How did economist Orley Ashenfelter successfully predict the future quality and price of Bordeaux wines?
  • A. By relying on the intuition and experience of master sommeliers.
  • B. By conducting randomized blind taste tests across different regions.
  • C. By analyzing the historical relationship between weather patterns and wine prices.
  • D. By calculating the exact chemical composition of the grapes during harvest.
Question 2 of 6
According to the text, how does the dating site eHarmony utilize the statistical technique of regression?
  • A. To randomly test different website layouts to see which generates more user sign-ups.
  • B. To analyze how various emotional and social factors have combined in the past to predict future romantic compatibility.
  • C. To eliminate users who have a statistical probability of committing online fraud.
  • D. To match users based exclusively on their geographical proximity and shared interests.
Question 3 of 6
Why is randomized testing considered a fundamental tool in medical research, such as comparing cancer treatments?
  • A. It ensures that the patients with the most severe symptoms receive the newest treatments first.
  • B. It eliminates the need for large groups of test subjects by focusing on qualitative, individual experiences.
  • C. It allows researchers to completely eliminate all side effects associated with experimental drugs.
  • D. It ensures that external variables, like lifestyle habits, are proportionally distributed across different treatment groups.
Question 4 of 6
What is the primary purpose of the 'Move to Opportunity' experiment mentioned in the book?
  • A. To use randomized testing to determine if poor families benefit from receiving housing vouchers to relocate.
  • B. To predict which neighborhoods will experience the highest real estate appreciation over ten years.
  • C. To analyze historical data to uncover fraud in public construction bidding processes.
  • D. To test whether micro-lending strategies are effective in developing nations.
Question 5 of 6
According to psychologist Paul Meehl's research, why does super crunching consistently outperform traditional human expertise?
  • A. Human experts lack access to the vast amounts of historical data needed for modern decision-making.
  • B. Human analysis is inherently flawed because all humans are affected by personal biases.
  • C. Statistical models are capable of feeling empathy, which allows for better social predictions.
  • D. Traditional experts refuse to update their methods and rely entirely on outdated textbooks.
Question 6 of 6
How does the rise of super crunching change the role of traditional human experts?
  • A. It renders human experts completely useless in all professional fields.
  • B. It restricts humans to only gathering data, while algorithms make all final decisions.
  • C. It requires experts to work alongside algorithms by generating hypotheses and determining which variables to test.
  • D. It forces experts to rely entirely on their intuition to counter the rigid nature of mathematical models.

Super Crunchers — Full Chapter Overview

Super Crunchers Summary & Overview

From building a wine cellar to finding your happily ever after, modern life is increasingly ruled by number crunching and algorithms. Super Crunchers (2007) is about the sheer power of the large data sets that are fed into algorithms and the way they’re revolutionizing our businesses, medical treatment and even our governments.

Who Should Listen to Super Crunchers?

  • Anyone interested in the power of statistics
  • Computer and math nerds
  • Business owners, politicians and baseball coaches

About the Author: Ian Ayres

Ian Ayres is a lawyer, econometrician and professor at both Yale’s Law School and School of Management. He’s also a columnist for Forbes, a regular commentator on Marketplace and the author of several books including Carrots and Sticks: Unlock the Power of Incentives to Get Things Done.

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