Thinking in Bets audiobook cover - Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts

Thinking in Bets

Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts

Annie Duke

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Management & LeadershipPsychology

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Thinking in Bets
Decisions vs. Outcomes+
Beliefs & Truth-Seeking+
Evaluating Outcomes+
Building Better Habits+
Group Decision-Making+
The CUDOS Framework+
Time Travel & Planning+

Quiz — Test Your Understanding

Question 1 of 8
In poker terminology, what does the term 'resulting' refer to?
  • A. Calculating the exact mathematical probability of a specific outcome before making a bet.
  • B. Confusing the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome.
  • C. The tendency to only remember the negative consequences of a choice.
  • D. Making a choice based purely on incomplete information without considering luck.
Question 2 of 8
According to the book, why is truth-seeking often difficult for humans?
  • A. Our evolutionary ancestors prioritized immediate survival over the objective analysis of new beliefs.
  • B. We are naturally wired to be deeply skeptical of new information until it is proven true.
  • C. Modern language lacks the vocabulary needed to communicate abstract, objective truths.
  • D. The human brain processes false statements much faster than true statements, leading to confusion.
Question 3 of 8
How does asking the question 'Wanna bet?' help improve our decision-making?
  • A. It intimidates opponents into backing down from their arguments.
  • B. It encourages us to take more financial risks to build our confidence.
  • C. It triggers us to look closer at our beliefs and motivates us to be objectively accurate.
  • D. It reinforces our motivated reasoning by proving our initial instincts right.
Question 4 of 8
Which scenario best illustrates the concept of 'self-serving bias' described in the text?
  • A. A poker player analyzes a winning hand to see if she made any strategic errors.
  • B. A driver involved in a car accident blames the icy road conditions rather than their own speeding.
  • C. A sports fan blames their team's loss on the opposing coach's brilliant strategy.
  • D. A student attributes their failing grade entirely to their own lack of studying.
Question 5 of 8
When trying to improve your decision-making habits, what does the author suggest changing your 'reward' to in the habit loop?
  • A. Feeling good about winning a hand and proving your superior skill to others.
  • B. Feeling good about being someone who accurately identifies mistakes and learns from them.
  • C. Giving yourself a financial bonus every time you win a bet against a friend.
  • D. Experiencing the relief of successfully blaming a bad outcome on bad luck.
Question 6 of 8
Why did poker legend Erik Seidel refuse to listen to the author's bad-luck stories?
  • A. He believed that discussing bad luck would jinx his own future poker games.
  • B. He felt that bad-luck stories were a pointless rehashing of things out of a player's control.
  • C. He wanted to establish dominance and prove he was a better player than the author.
  • D. He preferred to focus entirely on analyzing the outcomes of his own winning hands.
Question 7 of 8
In the CUDOS framework for truth-seeking groups, how did the author practice 'Disinterestedness' when teaching poker seminars?
  • A. By sharing all relevant information and refusing to hide details that made her look bad.
  • B. By hiring individuals to act as 'devil's advocates' to argue against her strategies.
  • C. By using the exact same standards to evaluate both professional and amateur players.
  • D. By describing specific hands she played but omitting the outcome to prevent biased analysis.
Question 8 of 8
What is the main difference between 'backcasting' and performing a 'premortem'?
  • A. Backcasting involves imagining a successful future and working backward, while a premortem involves imagining failure and asking what went wrong.
  • B. Backcasting is used for short-term decisions, while premortems are exclusively used for long-term, life-altering decisions.
  • C. Backcasting focuses on the role of luck in a past event, while a premortem focuses purely on the role of skill.
  • D. Backcasting relies on the 10-10-10 rule, while a premortem relies on finding the self-serving bias in a group.

Thinking in Bets — Full Chapter Overview

Thinking in Bets Summary & Overview

In any situation, the best decision isn’t guaranteed to work out, and even terrible decisions can sometimes turn out to be the right ones. So when things go wrong, who do we blame and why? And what about when things go right? In Thinking In Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts (2018), poker champion, author and business consultant Annie Duke shows how our addiction to outcomes leads to irrational thinking and the confusion of luck with skill.

Who Should Listen to Thinking in Bets?

  • Gamblers
  • Decision-phobes
  • Anyone who wants to stop making the same mistakes over and over

About the Author: Annie Duke

For over two decades, writer, coach and speaker Annie Duke was one of the world’s top poker players. In 2004, she earned a World Series of Poker (WSOP) gold bracelet ahead of 234 other players, and in 2010 she won the WSOP Tournament of Champions and the NBC National Heads-Up Poker Championship.

Duke holds a master’s degree in cognitive psychology from the University of Pennsylvania, where she also completed her doctoral coursework before beginning her career in poker. She currently works as a consultant, speaker and author. Her autobiography, Annie Duke: How I Raised, Folded, Bluffed, Flirted, Cursed, and Won Millions at the World Series of Poker, was published in 2005.

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