Farsighted audiobook cover - How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most

Farsighted

How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most

Steven Johnson

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Categories:
Management & LeadershipPsychology

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Farsighted
The Challenge of Decision-Making+
Forecasting the Future+
Strategic Frameworks & Tools+
Time and Intuition+

Quiz — Test Your Understanding

Question 1 of 8
Why did George Washington initially make a poor decision regarding the defense of New York against the British?
  • A. He lacked the mathematical models required to calculate troop movements accurately.
  • B. He fell prey to loss aversion, preferring to resist immediate losses rather than seek long-term gains.
  • C. He failed to consult a red team to anticipate the British navy's counterattacks.
  • D. He assumed the British would eventually retreat due to their own internal political pressures.
Question 2 of 8
According to Samuel Sommer's mock trial studies, why do diverse groups tend to make better decisions than homogenous ones?
  • A. They make decisions much faster and rely more heavily on collective intuition.
  • B. They naturally assign mathematical weights to the evidence presented to avoid bias.
  • C. They defer to the most senior expert in the group to avoid interpersonal conflict.
  • D. They spot more interpretations of evidence, recall facts more accurately, and deliberate longer.
Question 3 of 8
What did Philip Tetlock’s forecasting tournaments reveal about the ability of experts to predict the future?
  • A. Experts performed worse than non-experts because their narrow specialization prevented them from taking a broad view of converging factors.
  • B. Experts were highly accurate as long as their predictions were confined to their specific fields of study.
  • C. Experts were only outperformed by complex AI algorithms, but they consistently beat average humans.
  • D. Experts and generalists performed equally well, but experts were able to make predictions much faster.
Question 4 of 8
Why are future events, such as the invention and rise of the personal computer, so difficult to predict based on current trends?
  • A. Because human forecasters suffer from chronic loss aversion when imagining the future.
  • B. Because future events rely on the unpredictable convergence of breakthroughs across numerous, unrelated fields.
  • C. Because historical data is rarely accurate enough to build reliable forecasting algorithms.
  • D. Because technological advancements are often kept secret by governments until they are released.
Question 5 of 8
What is the primary function of a 'red team' in strategic decision-making?
  • A. To manage the budget and conduct a rigorous cost-benefit analysis of a proposed plan.
  • B. To ensure that the decision-making group is sufficiently diverse in its demographic makeup.
  • C. To act as the enemy and map out ways to counter the organization's potential plans.
  • D. To execute covert operations once the strategic plan has been finalized by leadership.
Question 6 of 8
How did the Obama administration utilize Ronald Reagan’s approach to cost-benefit analysis?
  • A. To justify the expansion of the Vancouver freshwater pipeline to indigenous tribes.
  • B. To evaluate the likelihood of finding Osama Bin Laden in his suspected compound in Pakistan.
  • C. To reduce military spending by outsourcing counterterrorism intelligence operations.
  • D. To calculate and monetize the long-term social costs of carbon dioxide emissions.
Question 7 of 8
How does linear value modeling assist humans and machines in making complex decisions?
  • A. It relies entirely on the brain's default system to process information intuitively over a long period.
  • B. It maps out possible options by assigning them weighted values and multiplying them by the likelihood of their occurrence.
  • C. It automatically delegates the final decision to the most diverse group of stakeholders available.
  • D. It uses historical trends to guarantee the absolute success of a future outcome.
Question 8 of 8
Why does the author recommend taking a long walk or allowing your mind to wander after deeply considering a complex decision?
  • A. It allows the brain’s default system time to filter information and shape an informed intuitive decision.
  • B. It distracts you so you can forget the negative consequences associated with loss aversion.
  • C. It generates the mathematical formulas needed to properly execute linear value modeling.
  • D. It physically prepares your body for the stress of executing a high-stakes decision.

Farsighted — Full Chapter Overview

Farsighted Summary & Overview

Farsighted (2018) is concerned with the complexity of decision-making. It demonstrates why decision-making can be so difficult, and how hard it can be to predict the outcome of any given decision. Farsighted also provides some helpful tools that can help anyone make better decisions, despite the difficulties.

Who Should Listen to Farsighted?

  • Strategists and managers
  • Psychologists
  • Ditherers who struggle to make decisions

About the Author: Steven Johnson

Steven Johnson is a bestselling nonfiction author. His previous publications include Where Good Ideas Come From, How We Got to Now and Everything Bad is Good for You. Johnson is also a website creator and blogger and has co-created successful TV shows such as How We Got to Now, which aired on PBS and the BBC.

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