What will I learn about: Powered by deep neural networks, AI has already achieved superhuman intelligence in narrow domains, as demonstrated by programs that can teach themselves to surpass human knowledge in mere days?

Powered by deep neural networks, AI has already achieved superhuman intelligence in narrow domains, as demonstrated by programs that can teach themselves to surpass human knowledge in mere days.

What will I learn about: The trajectory of AI will evolve exponentially from today's Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) to human-level Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) by the 2040s, eventually reaching Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) by 2070?

The trajectory of AI will evolve exponentially from today's Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) to human-level Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) by the 2040s, eventually reaching Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) by 2070.

What will I learn about: The future of AI is currently controlled by the 'big nine' tech corporations split between two rival systems: the United States' profit-driven free market and China's state-controlled, centralized planning?

The future of AI is currently controlled by the 'big nine' tech corporations split between two rival systems: the United States' profit-driven free market and China's state-controlled, centralized planning.

What will I learn about: The American 'build it first, ask for forgiveness later' approach and the Chinese pursuit of population control are creating massive vulnerabilities, including the risk of catastrophic militarized hacking of AI-dependent infrastructure?

The American 'build it first, ask for forgiveness later' approach and the Chinese pursuit of population control are creating massive vulnerabilities, including the risk of catastrophic militarized hacking of AI-dependent infrastructure.

What will I learn about: To secure a safe future, the US and its allies must heavily fund AI research to remove short-term market pressures and form a Global Alliance of Intelligence Augmentation (GAIA) rooted in humanistic values?

To secure a safe future, the US and its allies must heavily fund AI research to remove short-term market pressures and form a Global Alliance of Intelligence Augmentation (GAIA) rooted in humanistic values.

The Big Nine

How the Tech Titans and Their Thinking Machines Could Warp Humanity

Amy Webb

★ 4.4 / 5(133 ratings)

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Technology & the Future

If You're Curious About These Questions...

You should listen to this audiobook

💡How did the AI program AlphaGo Zero manage to surpass thousands of years of human knowledge and develop entirely new, 'superhuman' strategies in just 40 days?
💡In the race to develop AI, how do the profit-driven, short-term strategies of American tech companies contrast with the state-controlled, global-domination goals of China?
💡What happens when Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) reaches the 'point of no return' by the 2040s, and how could an international alliance called GAIA prevent a global catastrophe?

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Key Takeaways from The Big Nine

✓Powered by deep neural networks, AI has already achieved superhuman intelligence in narrow domains, as demonstrated by programs that can teach themselves to surpass human knowledge in mere days.
✓The trajectory of AI will evolve exponentially from today's Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) to human-level Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) by the 2040s, eventually reaching Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) by 2070.
✓The future of AI is currently controlled by the 'big nine' tech corporations split between two rival systems: the United States' profit-driven free market and China's state-controlled, centralized planning.
✓The American 'build it first, ask for forgiveness later' approach and the Chinese pursuit of population control are creating massive vulnerabilities, including the risk of catastrophic militarized hacking of AI-dependent infrastructure.
✓To secure a safe future, the US and its allies must heavily fund AI research to remove short-term market pressures and form a Global Alliance of Intelligence Augmentation (GAIA) rooted in humanistic values.

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The Big Nine

AI Evolution & Capabilities+

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Future Threats & Disasters+

Safeguarding Humanity's Future+

Quiz — Test Your Understanding

Question 1 of 8

What was the key difference between the original AlphaGo and its successor, AlphaGo Zero?

A. AlphaGo Zero was programmed with millions of human strategies, while AlphaGo learned from scratch.
B. AlphaGo Zero learned entirely by playing against itself without any human-generated data.
C. AlphaGo Zero was powered by constant human supervision rather than deep neural networks.
D. AlphaGo Zero was able to play multiple different board games, achieving Artificial General Intelligence.

Question 2 of 8

According to the author, what distinguishes Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) from Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI)?

A. AGI is limited to specific domains like spam filters, while ANI can perform any human task.
B. AGI relies entirely on human-generated data sets, while ANI generates its own learning material.
C. AGI approaches parity with humans in overall intelligence across a wide scope of tasks, whereas ANI excels only in specific domains.
D. AGI has already been achieved by modern tech companies, while ANI is predicted to arrive in the 2070s.

Question 3 of 8

Which of the following accurately represents the makeup of the 'big nine' tech companies driving AI development?

A. Six companies based in the United States and three companies based in China.
B. Three companies from the US, three from China, and three from the European Union.
C. Five companies in the US and four companies from allied nations like Japan and Canada.
D. Nine independent global start-ups that were recently acquired by Google and the Chinese government.

Question 4 of 8

How does the United States' free-market capitalist system primarily impact the development of AI by its tech companies?

A. It encourages deep collaboration and data sharing between rival companies to achieve lofty humanistic goals.
B. It results in heavy government regulation that slows down innovation and prevents ethical breaches.
C. It pressures companies into a short-sighted, 'build it first, ask forgiveness later' approach to maximize quick profits.
D. It leads to the creation of social credit systems to monitor consumer behavior and enforce brand loyalty.

Question 5 of 8

What are the two primary objectives of the Chinese government's heavy investment and centralized planning in the AI sector?

A. To maximize short-term corporate profits and increase foreign tech competition within China.
B. To cure global diseases and establish a utopian society based on free-market capitalism.
C. To decentralize government power and promote unregulated, open-source AI development.
D. To control its population and use its economic clout to become the world's dominant superpower.

Question 6 of 8

What severe future threat does the author speculate could arise from society's deep intertwining with and dependence on AI?

A. AI systems will become too expensive to maintain, causing a global economic collapse.
B. Militarized hacking could allow a rival nation to hijack interconnected systems, including medical nanobots.
C. Humans will lose the ability to perform basic cognitive tasks, reverting to a primitive evolutionary state.
D. The sudden loss of human jobs will lead to a complete halt in technological innovation.

Question 7 of 8

What is the proposed purpose of the Global Alliance of Intelligence Augmentation (GAIA)?

A. To create a unified military force capable of physically destroying rogue AI servers in hostile nations.
B. To privatize all AI research so that governments no longer have control over deep neural networks.
C. To bring the US and its allies together to develop AI guided by humanistic values, ultimately pressuring rival powers to join.
D. To transition the US economy into a hybrid socialist model similar to China's to better compete in the tech industry.

Question 8 of 8

According to the text, how can the US government help mitigate the reckless, profit-driven rush of AI development in the private sector?

A. By pumping enormous amounts of funding into the AI industry to relieve the pressure of rapid market monetization.
B. By banning all AI research and development until Artificial General Intelligence is achieved in the 2040s.
C. By breaking up the 'big nine' into hundreds of smaller, specialized start-ups.
D. By adopting China's social credit system to strictly monitor and regulate tech executives.

The Big Nine — Full Chapter Overview

1Recommendation
2Deep neural networks have transformed artificial intelligence.
3Artificial intelligence is already reaching levels of superhuman intelligence.
4Over the next 50 years, AI’s capabilities and reach will grow at an exponential rate.
5A short, crucial period will determine AI’s future and will be shaped mainly by the United States and China.
6The US model of tech innovation is driven by consumerism, profit, and a narrow focus on short-term gains.
7China’s state-directed tech sector puts AI first and pursues control at home and supremacy abroad.
8On its current trajectory, AI could bring about an immense catastrophe for humankind.
9To protect our future with AI, US-led democracies must adopt wise policies and build global cooperation.

The Big Nine Summary & Overview

The Big Nine (2019) provides a sobering look at the past, present and future of artificial intelligence, both as a field and a form of technology. After recounting some of the most recent and startling developments, the author goes on to identify the key factors and individuals currently shaping it, the directions in which it appears to be heading and the troubling impacts it could have on the future of humanity. She also suggests some intriguing ways in which those impacts could be avoided.

Who Should Listen to The Big Nine?

Fans of sci-fi movies and TV shows like Westworld, Black Mirror and The Matrix
Citizens concerned about the societal ramifications of digital technology
Tech mavens wanting to keep abreast of AI research and development

About the Author: Amy Webb

Amy Webb is a professor of strategic foresight at New York University’s Stern School of Business and the founder of the Future Today Institute, which conducts research on emerging technologies. As part of that research, she and her team have developed a data-driven method of forecasting the future, which she laid out in her Washington Post best-seller, The Signals Are Talking: Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream.

The Big Nine

If You're Curious About These Questions...

Listen to The Big Nine — Free Audiobook

Key Takeaways from The Big Nine

Learning Tools

Mind Map

Quiz — Test Your Understanding

The Big Nine — Full Chapter Overview

The Big Nine Summary & Overview

Who Should Listen to The Big Nine?

About the Author: Amy Webb

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