How to Future audiobook cover - Leading and Sense-making in an Age of Hyperchange

How to Future

Leading and Sense-making in an Age of Hyperchange

Scott Smith with Madeline Ashby

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Categories:
Management & LeadershipTechnology & the Future

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Key Takeaways from How to Future

Learning Tools

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Mind Map

How to Future
Core Concepts of Futuring+
Phase 1: Scoping the Exercise+
Phase 2: Sensing & Scanning+
Phase 3: The STEEP Framework+
Phase 4: Mapping Horizons & Probabilities+
Phase 5: Roadmapping & Storytelling+
Best Practices+

Quiz — Test Your Understanding

Question 1 of 9
What is the primary goal of 'futuring' according to the text?
  • A. To predict the single most likely future with absolute certainty.
  • B. To prepare for and prosper in multiple plausible future scenarios.
  • C. To ensure a company creates a utopian outcome for its industry.
  • D. To rely entirely on elected leaders to plan the future for us.
Question 2 of 9
What is the first step you should take before beginning a specific futuring exercise?
  • A. Establish the scope by understanding why the exercise was initiated and who it is for.
  • B. Immediately begin scanning for technological trends on social media.
  • C. Draft a compelling story to share with potential investors.
  • D. Categorize your existing knowledge using the STEEP framework.
Question 3 of 9
How does 'scanning' differ from 'sensing' in the futuring process?
  • A. Sensing is a targeted search for specific data, while scanning is a broad awareness of the world.
  • B. Scanning is done only by executives, while sensing is done by the general public.
  • C. Scanning is a targeted search for signals related to specific futures, whereas sensing is a continuous, general awareness of changes.
  • D. Sensing focuses on short-term futures, while scanning focuses exclusively on ten-year horizons.
Question 4 of 9
In the context of futuring, how does the text define a 'trend'?
  • A. A single, highly disruptive event that changes the market overnight.
  • B. A cluster of similar signals appearing more frequently.
  • C. The underlying political or economic force pushing a change.
  • D. A compelling narrative written to convince investors.
Question 5 of 9
What is the primary purpose of using the STEEP framework during a futuring exercise?
  • A. To calculate the exact financial cost of a future project.
  • B. To determine the specific year a new technology will become profitable.
  • C. To organize trends into categories and identify under-researched areas or blind spots.
  • D. To write a compelling narrative for community stakeholders.
Question 6 of 9
When mapping trends onto future horizons, what do the 'Three P's' stand for?
  • A. Profitable, Predictable, Practical
  • B. Probable, Plausible, Possible
  • C. Political, Physical, Psychological
  • D. Past, Present, Projected
Question 7 of 9
What does it mean to generate 'threads' when creating a futuring roadmap?
  • A. Finding inconsistencies in your team's research methods.
  • B. Linking together different members of a diverse futuring team.
  • C. Predicting possible sequences of events and situations that might affect the impact of a trend.
  • D. Tracking the historical origins of a specific technology back to its invention.
Question 8 of 9
Why is it important to translate your futuring threads into detailed, hypothetical stories?
  • A. To copyright your future predictions before competitors do.
  • B. To ensure the futuring process has an official, final endpoint.
  • C. To hide negative threads from potential investors.
  • D. To make the scenarios believable and compelling to audiences who weren't involved in the research.
Question 9 of 9
What actionable advice does the book offer regarding outliers and unusual ideas during the futuring process?
  • A. Discard them immediately to maintain a clear and focused roadmap.
  • B. Leave room for them, as these anomalies can sometimes have profound impacts on the future.
  • C. Only consider them if they fit neatly into the STEEP framework.
  • D. Assign them exclusively to the longest possible future horizon.

How to Future — Full Chapter Overview

How to Future Summary & Overview

How to Future (2020) arms you with a structured approach to prepare for multiple futures, as a business and an individual. In a fast-moving world where so much seems unpredictable, we can orient ourselves toward plausible future scenarios by recognizing changing trends in information – and using these observations to inform strategic decisions. In a business setting, effective futuring can mean the difference between relevance and obsolescence. 

Who Should Listen to How to Future?

  • Business or government leaders looking to future-proof their organizations
  • Knowledge-hungry people interested in futurology
  • Futurist writers looking to hone their skills

About the Author: Scott Smith with Madeline Ashby

Scott Smith is the founder and managing partner of Changeist, a consulting company that conducts futures research for businesses, NGOs, and governments. Changeist’s clients include Nokia, NASA, UNICEF, and the UK government. This is his first book.

Madeline Ashby is a science-fiction writer and consulting futurist. In addition to authoring Company Town and the Machine Dynasty book series, Ashby has also written numerous short stories and is a regular contributor to Slate and the MIT Technology Review.

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